Best Adapted Screenplay:
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
The big surprise here was Killers of the Flower Moon being left off. Something was going to be knocked off in favor of Barbie (which was mostly nominated in Original Screenplay in precursors), I think most people just assumed that the lower-buzz American Fiction or foreign film The Zone of Interest were more likely to drop off. I think Barbie is the frontrunner here, if only because Greta Gerwig (who cowrote the screenplay) can be recognized here after missing out in Best Director.
Best Original Screenplay:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
The expected nominees appeared here, mostly because Barbie opened up a slot so everything could make it in. This was the most likely place for Saltburn to appear, and its lack of a nomination was a harbinger of it missing out entirely on any nominations.
Best Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
America Ferrera sneaks into the field for Barbie (pretty much convincing me that Margot Robbie was in the dread 6th slot for Actress) and I'm already seeing a bunch of hot takes that either erase her from the conversation to complain about Gerwig/Robbie not making it in, or complaining that she was the one nominated instead of Robbie despite the two being in different categories. I'm just happy she made it in! This is Randolph's to lose - it looked like Brooks might challenge her early in the precursor season, but as Brooks is the only nomination The Color Purple managed across all categories, it is safe to call this for Randolph.
As an aside, how refreshing is this category? 4 first-time nominees, and the one previous nominee (Jodie Foster) was last nominated 30 years ago.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sterling K Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey, Jr, Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
The expected five, though Charles Melton (May December) and Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) both had reason to hope for a nomination. The former couldn't overcome the divisiveness of his movie and the latter lost out on Best in Show honors to his costar. Downey, Jr is the favorite in this category, but I can see a case being made for Gosling to surprise, or even Ruffalo given the overall love for Poor Things.
Another positive for both Supporting categories is that they appear to have nominated actual supporting performances this year instead of sneaking in lead roles like in previous years. I can't say for certain that they didn't since I haven't seen many of these movies, but any progress on that front is welcome.
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Okay, let's get the big snub out of the way: Margot Robbie for Barbie. Now, I wasn't as surprised as some were by this for multiple reasons, with the main one being that getting a Lead nomination for a heavily-comedic role is hard. Not just hard, but hard! The last time an overtly comedic role was nominated was Eliot Page for Juno in 2008. If anyone was going to fall off in this highly competitive year, it was likely her. I'm not saying it is right, just that this is how the Academy has operated for years. It vastly prefers dramas over comedies.
Some are attacking the Bening nomination as the one that kicked her out (I would say Mulligan is the more likely culprit there), and I don't want to wade too far into it, but attacking Bening for her nomination - for a movie that is very singularly focused on an older woman trying to swim 110 miles (from Florida to Cuba) - feels like the point of Barbie was somewhat missed.
Having said all that, Gladstone is the frontrunner here, with Stone right behind her.
Best Actor:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
DiCaprio is a snub for this category, given precursor support, but honestly, he's over-recognized at this point so I am okay with him missing. Domingo becomes only the second actor after Ian McKellan to be openly LGBT+ and nominated for playing an LGBT+ role (Jodie Foster, with this year's nomination, is the first woman to achieve that feat).
Murphy feels like a foregone conclusion for the win, but who knows what might change between now and voting?
Best Director:
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
The other category that is Causing Discussion. Unlike Robbie in Actress, however, Gerwig feels more egregious of a snub. I don't think she was in contention for a win, but seeing her fall out - even in favor of another woman - is some bullshit. I don't think this was misogyny, I think it was snobbery. The thought of nominating a movie based off of Barbie just didn't sit right with enough of the director's branch that Gerwig was left off.
Nolan feels like a lock for the win, but they've made him wait for recognition before, so don't be surprised if Lanthimos or even Scorsese surprise.
Best Picture:
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
This was the expected list. Past Lives might've seemed shaky, and two foreign language films wasn't a guarantee, but no other films really received the precursor support to overcome divisiveness (Saltburn, May December) or biases (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse) to knock out any of the above. Oppenheimer is the likely winner, but the widespread love for Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon means they shouldn't be counted out just yet.
Random Thoughts on Other Categories:
Nice to see Godzilla Minus One get a Visual Effects nod - the first time any Godzilla movie has ever been recognized by the Academy
Mission Impossible getting nominated for Sound is also the first time that franchise has been recognized by the Academy.
Diane Warren continues to get Original Song nominations for movies no one has seen, with the latest being for the film Flamin' Hot
As far as random nominations go, El Conde for Cinematography feels like the most random, give or take Golda in Makeup/Hairstyling
France didn't submit Anatomy of a Fall for International Feature, which means we are denied a battle between it and The Zone of Interest for that particular award, which is a shame.
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